Are you playing with two different meanings of the word "expected" here?
If I roll a 6-sided die, the expected value is 3½.
But I don't really expect to see 3½ as an outcome of the roll. I expect to see either 1, or 2, or 3, or 4, or 5, or 6. But certainly not 3½.
If my model says that 0.2 coins are heads-only and 0.8 coins are fair, in 1000 flips I expect to see either 1000 heads (probability 0.2) or cca 500 heads (probability 0.8). But I don't expect to see cca 600 heads. Yet, the expected value of the number of heads in 1000 flips is 600.
Are you playing with two different meanings of the word "expected" here?
No, I'm just using the word in the statistical-standard sense of "expected value".
This is a thread for rationality-related or LW-related jokes and humor. Please post jokes (new or old) in the comments.
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Q: Why are Chromebooks good Bayesians?
A: Because they frequently update!
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A super-intelligent AI walks out of a box...
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Q: Why did the psychopathic utilitarian push a fat man in front of a trolley?
A: Just for fun.