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DanielLC comments on Why I Am Not a Rationalist, or, why several of my friends warned me that this is a cult - Less Wrong Discussion
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I wasn't talking about priors. If you have a hunch because something is simpler, then that would be priors, but if you have a hunch because you've been subconsciously collecting evidence too vague to be put into words, then reality is causing the hunch, so it's just evidence.