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TheMajor comments on Why I Am Not a Rationalist, or, why several of my friends warned me that this is a cult - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (192)
Embracing the conclusion implied by new information even if it is in disagreement with your initial guess is a vital skill that many people do not have. I was first introduced to this problem here on LW. Of course your claim might still be valid, but I'd like to point out that some members (me) wouldn't have been able to take your advice if it wasn't for the material here on LW.
The problem with this example is really interesting - there exists some (subjectively objective) probabily, which we can find with Bayesian reasoning. Your recommendation is meta-advice, rather than attempting to find this probability you suggest investing some time and effort to get more evidence. I don't see why this would deserve downvotes (rather I would upvote it, I think), but note that a response containing percentages and Bayes' Theorem is an answer to the question.
Saying you didn't provide enough information for a probability estimate deserves downvotes because it misses the point. You can give probability estimates based on any information that's presented. The probability estimate will be better with more information but it's still possible to do an estimate with low information.
Using a Value of Information calculation would be best, especially if tied to proposed experiments.