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SilentCal comments on The Correct Use of Analogy - Less Wrong Discussion
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I wouldn't trust myself to sample randomly, so I prefer an adversarial approach: try to generate analogies that support each conclusion, then use them to figure out what evidence to look for.
+1 for adversarial approaches in general. I find that I'm more creative thinking of arguments if I'm trying to think of arguments to support a particular conclusion. So in order to gain maximum insight, I should try to think of all possible conclusions and then brainstorm arguments in favor of each.