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MrMind comments on [LINK] Another "LessWrongers are crazy" article - this time on Slate - Less Wrong Discussion
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Vanishingly small - the post was deleted by Eliezer (was that what, a year ago? two?) because it gave some people he knew nightmares, but I don't remember anybody actually complaining about it. Most of the ensuing drama was about whether Eliezer was right in deleting it. The whole thing has been a waste of everybody's time and attention (as community drama over moderation almost always is).
Eliezer specifically denied the possibility of a basilisk, although no theory of acausal blackmail in reflective equilibrium exists yet.
Roko's post was deleted because of how people reacted to it, not because it was a real memetic hazard.
ETA: on a second review, that's the reason Yudkowsky gave after the fact. I'm not convinced it was his initial motivation.
Surely there's some non-zero possibility of acausal blackmail?
Well, I guess the standard caveat applies here: there's nothing that has really 0 chance of happening.
I don't know about, but if it turned out acausal blackmail was logically impossible, that would deserve a probability as small as we can allow ourselves.
Isn't this precisely what TDT solves?
I sincerely have no idea. I don't even know if TDT stands on its own as a completed theory.