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Tenoke comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Yes, that is my line of reasoning and I was going to mention the emh, but after some introspection, I am not so sure if this collective pre-market [so to say] is actually very efficent due to the limited number of players among other things (although it might very well be, and I could argue that it should be).
Getting into deeper theory now. Is the EMH dependent on the number of participants? It most certainly is contingent on the flow of information. But even then, we see the EMH at play with regard to startups in the VC stage: After correcting for risk, they don't make any more money. I argue that these companies are in a pre-market stage.
Then again, my argument is not contingent on the efficiency of any one price. If you invested a little bit in everything that pops up in your inbox and after five years gives you a risk-adjusted return higher than the average market I'd be highly surprised. So I'd be willing to accept that there are plenty of inventions and products in the pre-market stage that are wrongly priced, but as a whole the price is very correct near zero.
What's your source for that? A quick google search turns up widely varying numbers.
This is what I was thinking of, but it isn't exactly my claim.