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evand comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Well, the good gold rushes are rare.
I think it's worth pointing out that the Bitcoin gold rush is probably far from over. It's by no means certain to continue, of course, but I think there are reasons to question how strongly the Efficient Market Hypothesis applies. In particular, the current regulatory murkiness that makes it difficult for institutional money to get involved, but there are others as well.
The interesting bit is the one where the market failed to work: we now know the Mt Gox price was hideously corrupted (and the tape-painting was long visible right there in the blockchain), but the other exchanges closely tracked the bogus Mt Gox price.
So look for an inefficient market as an opportunity.
I find it more surprising that the bogus price on Mt Gox was not fully tracked by other exchanges. I thought about trying to arbitrage that for a little while, before deciding that was a context where I basically trusted the EMH and took it as a signal to move out of Mt Gox.
Yeah, there was a certain spread for the difficulty already present at the time in getting one's money back out of Mt Gox.
Bogus mtgox price? It was Chinese exchanges that were driving that runup, and mtgox following.