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Wei_Dai comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Nobody has come up with another example of something that meets my definition of a tech gold rush, so these things don't seem to happen very often. I suggest keeping an eye out for them, but set your standard of "seemingly-promising" high enough so that it's triggered only rarely.
Another useful tip may be to look for entirely new asset classes, rather than something similar to the last big thing (altcoins or startups). Before domain names and Bitcoin, who thought that entries in a lookup table or a decentralized currency could be an investment asset?
I would have thought you did, based on your research.
What information available in 2009 would have convinced you that bitcoin would become a billion-dollar market as quickly as it did?
No, my monetary policy views were firmly mainstream, which considers rapid unpredictable changes in prices, in either direction, to be a really bad thing for a currency. So I designed b-money to have a stable value relative to a basket of commodities, and until Bitcoin came along, never thought anyone might deliberately design a currency to have a fixed total supply.