Wei_Dai comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion
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While it is true that we (techies, rationalists, etc.) have the opportunity to catch a gold rush by becoming early adopterst, I suspect survivorship bias is at play. There are plenty of people who try to systematically 'grind' on such opportunitities but it doesn't pan out for many of them - I know some people who used to mass-register domains, and made a neglible profit in the end, people who jump on all sorts of altcoins, programmers who join a promising startup, where they sacrifice salary for equity, etc. Additionally, I also started messing with bitcoins in 2011, and while it has been quite profitable, I have made less than six figures, since I wasn't very serious about it at the time. And yes, in retrospect I can say that I should've put more money in (and kept them in bitcoin), but if I follow the same line of reasoning with all the seemingly-promising things I see, I might very well go broke.
Indeed, luck seems to be a big part of it, and the main action that you can take to facilitate the process is probably to put yourself in the right circles, so you can hear and look into innovations early on. This, however, is something that you and many people on here already do, and I doubt that you can easily find another intervention that will have as big of an impact on your chances to participate in a gold rush.
Nobody has come up with another example of something that meets my definition of a tech gold rush, so these things don't seem to happen very often. I suggest keeping an eye out for them, but set your standard of "seemingly-promising" high enough so that it's triggered only rarely.
Another useful tip may be to look for entirely new asset classes, rather than something similar to the last big thing (altcoins or startups). Before domain names and Bitcoin, who thought that entries in a lookup table or a decentralized currency could be an investment asset?
I would have thought you did, based on your research.
What information available in 2009 would have convinced you that bitcoin would become a billion-dollar market as quickly as it did?
No, my monetary policy views were firmly mainstream, which considers rapid unpredictable changes in prices, in either direction, to be a really bad thing for a currency. So I designed b-money to have a stable value relative to a basket of commodities, and until Bitcoin came along, never thought anyone might deliberately design a currency to have a fixed total supply.