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JoshuaFox comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion

34 Post author: Wei_Dai 19 July 2014 10:08AM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 19 July 2014 08:28:14PM 15 points [-]

In other words, the efficient market hypothesis. There is no way to beat the market.

EMH is the reason I didn't bother looking. All my money is in index funds, I told my parents to put all their money in index funds, etc. But after stumbling into assets with returns in the 100x-1000x range (or 100% to 500% annualized), twice, it seems time to update a bit.

Comment author: JoshuaFox 20 July 2014 11:23:06AM 4 points [-]

EMH says the market can be beaten with exceptional information. If anyone is exceptionally informed on cryptocurrencies (in 2011, and maybe 2014), it is certainly Wei Dai.

Comment author: wedrifid 20 July 2014 01:39:44PM 1 point [-]

EMH says the market can be beaten with exceptional information.

To be more precise, weak-form and semi-strong-form efficiency can be beaten with exceptional information. Strong-form efficiency can not.

Comment author: Clarity 05 November 2015 10:34:51AM 0 points [-]

Yeah, I think this thread gives a lot of false hope to regular people, haha. He's basically the grandfather of bitcoin. Is it a suprise he got rich of it?

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