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David_Gerard comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (113)
Nobody makes money off gold in a gold rush. Those who make money from the strike already found their gold before it was a gold rush.
If you want to predict a gold rush, use the weak inside view to predict where opportunities will be, and move on those where no one else is.
The general principle is: In a gold rush, the money is in shovels. So look for services you can provide to a gold rush.
That's missing the point. He's asking how you predict the gold rush in the first place.
True :-) OTOH, if anyone could answer that question reliably they'd be rich.