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wedrifid comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion
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It does follow from repeatability -- Warren Buffet and Goldman Sachs are not explained by the lottery analogy.
It doesn't follow from repeatability. Or rather it doesn't follow from the existence of examples of repeated success. A normal distribution of returns with repeated play will still lead us to expect at least one investor with Buffet's track record (if my econ. prof's math is to believed----I haven't have cause to look closely).
It would follow from "significantly more repeated success than a normal distribution would predict".
I do believe that Buffet's success is more than luck, just not that this particular argument follows.
Buffett claimed at some point that they calculated he was a 3 sigma event, then a 4 sigma, then a 5 sigma, then stopped calculating because it was getting embarrassing.
Here is his contemporary, fuller argument.
Buffet's track record is well beyond what chance would allow.