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Mark_Friedenbach comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion

34 Post author: Wei_Dai 19 July 2014 10:08AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 20 July 2014 02:02:23PM 3 points [-]

It does follow from repeatability -- Warren Buffet and Goldman Sachs are not explained by the lottery analogy.

It doesn't follow from repeatability. Or rather it doesn't follow from the existence of examples of repeated success. A normal distribution of returns with repeated play will still lead us to expect at least one investor with Buffet's track record (if my econ. prof's math is to believed----I haven't have cause to look closely).

It would follow from "significantly more repeated success than a normal distribution would predict".

I do believe that Buffet's success is more than luck, just not that this particular argument follows.

Comment author: [deleted] 20 July 2014 02:50:46PM 1 point [-]

Buffet's track record is well beyond what chance would allow.