Mark_Friedenbach comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Technically, past performance is Bayesian information about future returns, which in an efficient market is already reflected in asset prices. The domain name market is not an efficient one though, given that I'm the only person who can even see the history of bids on weidai.com. But my main point was just that the domain produces returns like any other asset, so the financial cost of holding onto it can't be the whole $100k, which is what you were assuming. I don't know what the actual cost is. My intuitive estimate is that it's about $10k, which does not make it worthwhile for me to sell. I don't know how to do a more exact calculation. Do you?
"opaque illiquid minor hard-to-price" are arguments against trading in the asset, either buying or selling, since these attributes tend to increase transaction costs. I don't see how they are arguments for keeping my holdings in the asset class to a low level, if I started off holding a big position.
$100k is the opportunity cost, which is very real. You could be right now re-investing that $100k in some other venture.
I think you may have misunderstood what I was saying. Gwern had asked me, "You really think you are currently producing ~$100k of value with your current lifestyle and work patterns each 4 weeks in which you ignore selling the domain?" And I was trying to point out that by doing 4 weeks of work, I'm not earning $100k, but rather earning the difference in future returns between holding weidai.com and holding some other asset, presumably an index fund, and this difference has to be worth less than 100k in current value unless there's 100% chance that weidai.com becomes worthless.