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Tenoke comments on Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush? - Less Wrong Discussion

34 Post author: Wei_Dai 19 July 2014 10:08AM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 21 July 2014 10:50:22AM 2 points [-]

past performance is no guarantee of future returns

Technically, past performance is Bayesian information about future returns, which in an efficient market is already reflected in asset prices. The domain name market is not an efficient one though, given that I'm the only person who can even see the history of bids on weidai.com. But my main point was just that the domain produces returns like any other asset, so the financial cost of holding onto it can't be the whole $100k, which is what you were assuming. I don't know what the actual cost is. My intuitive estimate is that it's about $10k, which does not make it worthwhile for me to sell. I don't know how to do a more exact calculation. Do you?

Unless you're orders of magnitude wealthier than I think you are, your exposure to an opaque illiquid minor hard-to-price asset like domain names should look more like $10 than $100,000.

"opaque illiquid minor hard-to-price" are arguments against trading in the asset, either buying or selling, since these attributes tend to increase transaction costs. I don't see how they are arguments for keeping my holdings in the asset class to a low level, if I started off holding a big position.

Comment author: Tenoke 21 July 2014 03:13:21PM *  -1 points [-]

I just want to point out that you did start this thread to get decent financial advice, and in my opinion you are getting one now.