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blogospheroid comments on Open thread, July 21-27, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: polymathwannabe 21 July 2014 01:15PM

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Comment author: blogospheroid 25 July 2014 05:48:36AM 2 points [-]

This just showed up on my google reader.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/07/25/electricity-solarstorms-kemp-idINL6N0PZ5D120140725

My immediate thought was about this storm actually hitting in 2012. The mayan apocalypse was predicted on that year. The civilizational challenge to rebuild would have been substantial. But even more, the epistemic state of the civilization that recovered would almost have been permanently compromised. It would appear to most people that an ancient prophecy of a civilization that was brutally crushed was actually true.

What would we be thinking then? How would the rationalists in our adjacent universe be updating their priors? How much thought and effort would be put into reading and understanding ancient prophecies? Could you dismiss modern seers and prophets? Who would you trust?

Comment author: ChristianKl 25 July 2014 10:01:53AM 3 points [-]

The "Mayan apocalypse" isn't an ancient prophecy.

From Wikipedia:

Misinterpretation of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar was the basis for a popular belief that a cataclysm would take place on December 21, 2012. December 21, 2012 was simply the day that the calendar went to the next b'ak'tun, at Long Count 13.0.0.0.0. The date on which the calendar will go to the next piktun (a complete series of 20 b'ak'tuns), at Long Count 1.0.0.0.0.0, will be on October 13, 4772.

Sandra Noble, executive director of the Mesoamerican research organization Foundation for the Advancement of Mesoamerican Studies, Inc. (FAMSI), notes that "for the ancient Maya, it was a huge celebration to make it to the end of a whole cycle". She considers the portrayal of December 2012 as a doomsday or cosmic-shift event to be "a complete fabrication and a chance for a lot of people to cash in."

Comment author: blogospheroid 28 July 2014 12:48:31PM 1 point [-]

If a storm like the one described in the link had actually hit, then would people really be concerned with these fine differences?

Comment author: ChristianKl 28 July 2014 01:29:35PM 0 points [-]

I don't see how a good time for partying and apocalypse are only distinguished by a fine difference.

Anyone who would put a serious thought and effort into reading and understanding ancient prophecies certainly would be concerned about the difference.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 25 July 2014 08:31:34PM 0 points [-]

Not only that, the interpretation of the time as an apocalypse or otherwise major change in the world was literally made up by a guy on several hallucinogens simultaneously...

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