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PhilGoetz comments on Fifty Shades of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy - Less Wrong Discussion

18 Post author: PhilGoetz 24 July 2014 12:17AM

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Comment author: PhilGoetz 05 August 2014 05:38:31PM *  0 points [-]

Fanfiction writers are writers. That's who the "various writers" are. EL James is a writer.

If the average reader leaves 2.7 comments, and the story had 37,000 comments at the time when people started writing articles about it, I certainly accept 10% of readers leaving comments--the % is lower on most stories--which would indicate 137K readers by that time.

But all that is guess work, whereas it is a fact that that a 70-chapter story with 2 million hits can only have been read in its entirety by at most 28,571 people. That's the theoretical upper limit. I suppose it's barely possible that as many as 15,000 people read it on ff.net, but no more than that. And most readers, according to Jamison, read it on ff.net.

Comment author: gwern 05 August 2014 06:17:52PM *  0 points [-]

But all that is guess work...And most readers, according to Jamison, read it on ff.net.

And how would she know?

Comment author: PhilGoetz 04 November 2015 06:18:28AM 0 points [-]

She was there. She was an active member of the community when the story came out.

Comment author: gwern 04 November 2015 07:33:43PM 0 points [-]

Being an active member of the community does not grant knowledge of statistical regularities like you need it to for the argument to work. There is no way she can know 'most' readers read it there, because most readers will never say anything and there will be differences in who does say things - the readers that an author hears from are not random readers, to say the least.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 01 December 2015 03:32:29PM 0 points [-]

The number of reviews that you're trying to infer more readers from is also from FF.net. The 2 million hits are also from ff.net. There are no numbers from anywhere else. I've already demonstrated that it's theoretically impossible for there to have been even as many as 29,000 readers at that time on FF.net, and you're apparently still claiming there were 127k on ff.net. It's your analysis, not mine, that's been debunked here.