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Mac comments on Open thread, July 28 - August 3, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: polymathwannabe 28 July 2014 08:27PM

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Comment author: Metus 28 July 2014 10:00:12PM *  12 points [-]

Since we are way too confident that bad things won't happen to us I have been researching how to prepare for several rare events with disastrous consequences. Starting the research I realised I have yet to find out what those events exactly are. So far I have found these, remedy given if known:

  • Own death (write a will specifying how property shall be used and funeral arrangements in the interest of next of kin and close friends, if there are people financially dependent buy life insurance, if you believe in cryonics register as a member and make arrangements to pay for it. Prepare for the near-term possibility and long-term inevitability)
  • Death of a family member or close friend (see above)
  • Loss of possibility of legal consent e.g. through brain damage or disease (prepare a document detailing your views and wants in such a case, buy insurance to pay for aid, if people are financially dependent on you buy insurance for them too)
  • Loss of consciousness and/or dependence on machine-assisted living (see above)
  • Accidents of any kind such as traffic or work related (ignoring the circumstances above, buy specific insurance)
  • Unforseen, non-work related liability (buy liability insurance)
  • Damage from third parties without ability to pay or liability insurance (buy proper liability insurance)
  • Breach of law not related to contracting work (buy legal insurance)
  • Divorce
  • Being robbed or theft
  • Loss of income because of loss of ability to work
  • Loss of income because of loss of employment
  • Large-scale catastrophe (consult your local relevant government agency, such as , buy insurance for non-global events)
  • Loss of property, more specifically capital

Some of these are more economic in nature, some take a massive psychological toll. To deal with an event means to either reduce its possibility or to reduce its impact. Insurance helps with the latter, psychological preparation further takes the edge off. Reducing the possibility can be through more expenses e.g. higher quality items or through change in behaviour.

This project is very much a work in progress. Should I complete or abandon it I will share the state I leave it in. Please post all your thoughts and relevant material. I am especially interested in some numbers such as probabilities of these things happening (like the oft-stated number of 50% divorce rate).

Comment author: Mac 29 July 2014 02:59:26AM 1 point [-]

Large-scale catastrophe (consult your local relevant government agency, such as , buy insurance for non-global events)

I believe that some foreign large-scale catastrophes could also negatively impact one’s well-being. Extreme example: imagine if everyone in the world suddenly died except the citizens of your country. Psychological toll aside, your country’s necessary transition from international trader to autarky would be painful. Losing trading partners = losing ability to specialize = reducing economic efficiency = falling wages.

The reinsurance markets often deal in the risks of the disastrous. Maybe you can evaluate reinsurance offering documents and prices in order to extract the market’s implied probability of similar events.