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army1987 comments on Open thread, July 28 - August 3, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Very very close to 1, if the trials are truly independent. But (as Jaynes mentioned in PT:TLoS) there are ways of flipping a coin that systematically favour one side over the other, and you might be unwittingly doing something like that. IOW inside the argument the probability that you took the second coin is negligible, but outside the argument it isn't.
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