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Stuart_Armstrong comments on How to treat problems of unknown difficulty - Less Wrong Discussion
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Thanks, this is most useful.
Someone (Tegmark?) used this kind of approach to show the Fermi paradox isn't so surprising. If you take a uniform log prior over intelligent civilization density, you quickly remove the end where there would be multiple species in the solar system, and then it's not much of a space until you're below 1 civ per Hubble volume...