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V_V comments on Connection Theory Has Less Than No Evidence - Less Wrong Discussion

17 Post author: WilliamJames 01 August 2014 10:17AM

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Comment author: V_V 01 August 2014 02:33:33PM 1 point [-]

So, this "Connection Theory" looks like run-of-the-mill crackpottery. Why are people paying attention to it?

Comment author: [deleted] 01 August 2014 02:39:50PM *  7 points [-]

Perhaps it's because of the strong overlap with LessWrong and Leverage's description of themselves as an organisation adopting an explicitly rationalist approach: see the intro post by lukeprog from early 2012.

(in fact, LW is the only place I have ever heard of Leverage and Connection Theory)

Comment author: V_V 01 August 2014 02:44:45PM -2 points [-]

Ah, good old in-group bias...

Comment author: ChristianKl 01 August 2014 02:54:40PM 8 points [-]

Paying attention to what the in-group does is no bias. It makes sense to evaluate the ideas of your friends.

Comment author: V_V 01 August 2014 03:11:19PM -2 points [-]

And does it take more than five seconds to dismiss an idea like this?

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 02 August 2014 12:40:42PM 0 points [-]

Why are people paying attention to it?

Are they? I almost forgot it exists.

I don't remember much about it, by my impression was that it more or less says this:

1) People do things they believe do contribute to their goals. Of course their models can be wrong.

2) Leave a line of retreat. If someone does/believes X because according to their model it is the only/best way to a goal G they care about, before you start convicing them to abandon X, first show them there are alternative ways to reach G. Then they will not fight for X so hard.

It doesn't seem to me so crazy. Just overhyped, without the corresponding extraordinary evidence. And overestimating the strategic behavior of humans.

Comment author: XiXiDu 01 August 2014 03:06:31PM 0 points [-]

So, this "Connection Theory" looks like run-of-the-mill crackpottery. Why are people paying attention to it?

From the post:

“I don’t feel confident assigning less than a 1% chance that it’s correct — and if it works, it would be super valuable. Therefore it’s very high EV!”

Comment author: fubarobfusco 01 August 2014 06:25:35PM 1 point [-]

Sounds like a Pascal's memetic mugging to me.