MrMind comments on Connection Theory Has Less Than No Evidence - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (48)
Yes, but in the case of "the totality of the theories of the mind", this is impossible. You cannot possibly calculate P("poorly conducted, unpublished case studies"| not CT) to get a likelihood ratio. Plus, if you admit more than two competing hypothesis, you lose the additivitiy of log-odds and make the calculations even more complicated.
If you want any hope to get a real Bayesian analysis of CT, the only possible way is to compare it against the best possible alternative.
I think you underestimated my understanding of how Bayesian reasoning works or that I underestimated the inferential distances for Bayesian calculations done in a real case.
Which is exactly what I said.