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Manfred comments on Raven paradox settled to my satisfaction - Less Wrong Discussion
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This model of independence between shapes is what I'm calling the implicit model that people use to say that the conclusion of the raven paradox is absurd.
Right, I should have written, "I agree. Also, ...". I just wanted to find the source of the intuition that seeing non-black non-ravens is evidence for "non-black -> non-raven".