You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Manfred comments on Raven paradox settled to my satisfaction - Less Wrong Discussion

8 Post author: Manfred 06 August 2014 02:46AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (24)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Manfred 07 August 2014 04:07:27AM 0 points [-]

I agree. In the first example, it's because if our probability distribution only encompasses two categories, any increase in one is a decrease in the other. In the second example, it's because the ex-super-goth's hypothesis space includes all sorts of relationships between number of black things and number of nonblack things - their preconceptions about the world are different, rather than you just stipulating that they sample non-black things.