V_V comments on Economics/demographics question: If a child unexpectedly dies, how much does this shrink the next generation? - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Loading…
Subscribe to RSS Feed
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
Comments (12)
It is equivalent of turning the clock a little back in the population size time series. Assuming a constant capacity, these curves are idealized as logistic functions (although delays in the feedback mechanisms can induce overshooting).
If the population is in the stationary region of the logistic function, then there is no significant effect: the person who dies is replaced by somebody else using the freed up resources.
If the population is in the exponential region of the logistic function, the loss of a single person will reduce population size by 1 in the current generation, k in the next generation, k^2 in the second next generation and so on, where k is the (unisex) growth rate. In order to take into account gender differences, replace the first k in each of these products by a gender-specific rate.