You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

V_V comments on Economics/demographics question: If a child unexpectedly dies, how much does this shrink the next generation? - Less Wrong Discussion

1 Post author: ericyu3 07 August 2014 06:53PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (12)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: V_V 08 August 2014 09:16:06AM *  4 points [-]

It is equivalent of turning the clock a little back in the population size time series. Assuming a constant capacity, these curves are idealized as logistic functions (although delays in the feedback mechanisms can induce overshooting).

If the population is in the stationary region of the logistic function, then there is no significant effect: the person who dies is replaced by somebody else using the freed up resources.
If the population is in the exponential region of the logistic function, the loss of a single person will reduce population size by 1 in the current generation, k in the next generation, k^2 in the second next generation and so on, where k is the (unisex) growth rate. In order to take into account gender differences, replace the first k in each of these products by a gender-specific rate.