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pinyaka comments on Conservation of Expected Jury Probability - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: jkaufman 22 August 2014 03:25PM

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Comment author: pinyaka 22 August 2014 08:44:12PM *  0 points [-]

Also, to quote from the sequence article you've linked to:

Equivalently, the mere expectation of encountering evidence—before you've actually seen it—should not shift your prior beliefs.

So you should only move your expectation of how the juror will vote after you find out how much their household income is.