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Metus comments on Open thread, 25-31 August 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: jaime2000 25 August 2014 11:14AM

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Comment author: polymer 25 August 2014 04:57:00PM *  2 points [-]

Can someone link to a discussion, or answer a small misconception for me?

We know P(A & B) < P(A). So if you add details to a story, it becomes less plausible. Even though people are more likely to believe it.

However, If I do an experiment, and measure something which is implied by A&B, then I would think "A&B becomes more plausible then A", Because A is more vague then A&B.

But this seems to be a contradiction.

I suppose, to me, adding more details to a story makes the story more plausible if those details imply the evidence. Sin(x) is an analytic function. If I know a complex differentiable function has roots on all multiples of pi, Saying the function is satisfied by Sin is more plausible then saying it's satisfied by some analytic function.

I think...I'm screwing up the semantics, since sin is an analytic function. But this seems to me to be missing the point.

I read a technical explanation of a technical explanation, so I know specific theories are better then vague theories (provided the evidence is specific). I guess I'm asking for clarifications on how this is formally consistent with P(A) > P(A&B).

Comment author: Metus 25 August 2014 05:09:18PM 3 points [-]

A more specific explanation is better than a general explanation in the scientific sense exactly because it is more easily falsifiable. Your sentence

If I know a complex differentiable function has roots on all multiples of pi, Saying the function is satisfied by Sin is more plausible then saying it's satisfied by some analytic function.

is completely wrong, as the set containing the sine function is most certainly contained in the set of all analytic functions, making it more plausible that "some analytic function has roots at all multiples of pi" than to say the same of sine, assuming we do not already know a great deal of information about sine.

However, If I do an experiment, and measure something which is implied by A&B, then I would think "A&B becomes more plausible then A", Because A is more vague then A&B.

Plain and simply no. If evidence E implies A and B, formally E -> A&B, then seperately E -> A and E -> B are true, increasing the probability of both seperately, making your conclusion invalid.