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one_forward comments on Open thread, 25-31 August 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: jaime2000 25 August 2014 11:14AM

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Comment author: polymer 25 August 2014 04:57:00PM *  2 points [-]

Can someone link to a discussion, or answer a small misconception for me?

We know P(A & B) < P(A). So if you add details to a story, it becomes less plausible. Even though people are more likely to believe it.

However, If I do an experiment, and measure something which is implied by A&B, then I would think "A&B becomes more plausible then A", Because A is more vague then A&B.

But this seems to be a contradiction.

I suppose, to me, adding more details to a story makes the story more plausible if those details imply the evidence. Sin(x) is an analytic function. If I know a complex differentiable function has roots on all multiples of pi, Saying the function is satisfied by Sin is more plausible then saying it's satisfied by some analytic function.

I think...I'm screwing up the semantics, since sin is an analytic function. But this seems to me to be missing the point.

I read a technical explanation of a technical explanation, so I know specific theories are better then vague theories (provided the evidence is specific). I guess I'm asking for clarifications on how this is formally consistent with P(A) > P(A&B).

Comment author: one_forward 25 August 2014 06:49:47PM 2 points [-]

A&B cannot be more probable than A, but evidence may support A&B more than it supports A.

For example, suppose you have independent prior probabilities of 1/2 for A and for B. The prior probability of A&B is 1/4. If you are then told "A iff B," the probability for A does not change but the probability of A&B goes up to 1/2.

The reason specific theories are better is not that they are more plausible, but that they contain more useful information.