Open thread, 25-31 August 2014

jaime2000

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Previous open thread

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one.

3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

Is there a name for the following pattern?

Argument or just noticing confusion
"He looks way too confident, he's probably better at the field or has significant information"
Catastrophic failure more or less matching my predictions

I seem to run into this a lot lately, but the alternative of assuming I'm correct seems even worse. I'm also often not in a position to ask about the source of their confidence.

Would you care to post some predictions?

4ChristianKl12y

Accurately judging the confidence that other people have in their own judgements isn't easy. It can be that the other person just doesn't care whether they are wrong. In political discussions people often argue their positions quite strongly even if they don't have good evidence for them. You might mistake that strong arguing as confidence when it's rather the opposite. Fight, flight and freeze responses are all instances of fear but look quite different. Especially shy people often confuse a fight response with confidence when it isn't.

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Open thread, 25-31 August 2014

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