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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

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Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 29 August 2014 07:27:26AM *  6 points [-]

The Good Judgement Project in which I participate has an item about this:

#1415: Will there be a **lethal confrontation involving Russian **national military forces in Ukraine **before 1 October 2014?

Note the "*" refer to very precisely defined terms.

I will update my prediction based on this LW info.

Are there any comparable bets related to the South Chinese Sea dispute?

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