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Luke_A_Somers comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

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Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 29 August 2014 05:10:07PM 1 point [-]

You thought the odds of a Russian intervention were less than 5%

No, he didn't. He thought the odds of Russia invading Ukraine in the same fashion as the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan were 5%. This is a rather different thing.

Comment author: shminux 29 August 2014 05:37:38PM 2 points [-]

Something like that, yes. I was talking about Russian tanks openly rolling across the border. But Putin found a way to do effectively the same without being so brazen. Which was one of the factors I missed.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 31 August 2014 04:11:33PM 1 point [-]

I'll going to look at the rationality skill of being able to tell whether you've anchored on a prototype. Has this already been explored?

Comment author: shminux 31 August 2014 06:04:39PM 1 point [-]

I am not sure what you mean, maybe worth asking in the open thread.

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