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shminux comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Something like that, yes. I was talking about Russian tanks openly rolling across the border. But Putin found a way to do effectively the same without being so brazen. Which was one of the factors I missed.
I'll going to look at the rationality skill of being able to tell whether you've anchored on a prototype. Has this already been explored?
I am not sure what you mean, maybe worth asking in the open thread.