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Lumifer comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Do you really think that if your two problems were absent -- if the US were not war-weary and if the economy were doing great -- then the US would be ready to put boots on the ground in Russia?
To quote a fellow named Vizzini, You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" X-D
I think it would look pretty silly and would give Putin a mighty political gift. He'd point a finger at your troops and yell that the American warmongers are preparing to invade Mother Russia -- and that's all he would need to really unite all the population behind him.
I don't think the Fed has a few billion Rubles. And my guess as to what would happen is that Putin will close the taps on the oil and gas flowing into Europe, Germany in particular. Frau Merkel would be most displeased, I would think.
Yes I think in a different scenario the US would be more hawkish on Russia without War weariness and better economic conditions. This is basic war theory.
You are right, Putin could certain point at increased troops in Germany as the West getting ready for war and it might lead to mobilization, however, as Putin is in no mood and Russia is in no economic condition for a protracted war with the West I think it would have the correct provocative effect. I don't think Putin would slow down but it would make everyone at the Kremlin think twice. I would keep them there for about 3 months and then send them home.
The Fed has a few billion rubles because all global trade accounts must balance and the Federal Reserves keeps vast quantities of every trading partners currency so that trade accounts will balance, they can re-buy American debt in local currency, and for stability of global markets. So yes, you could dump a few billion rubles by re-buying certain amounts of American debt from China and paying for it in Rubles.
What is this I don't even
Basically, the Fed as apart of the global central banking system keeps various currencies on hand for global trade purposes. Ergo you could dump those back in the market.
Does it, now? Actually keeps "currencies on hand"? Or maybe we're talking about FX swap lines?
Can you provide a like to e.g. a Fed balance sheet that shows "a few billion rubles"?
I cannot say/find information on what exactly they keep on hand these days. However, the currency swap lines can be created literally at will which they did during the 2008 crisis. Also, if you look at the case of Leo Wanta, who armed with 2.7 Trillion dollars destabilized the Soviet economy with FX swaps in Brussels between 1989 and 1991.
Yes, but when you have an FX swap line, you don't own the foreign currency, you only have a facility to get some in exchange for yours. In your example, for the Fed to attempt to devalue the ruble it would have to get it first from someone (likely, the Central Bank of Russia), effectively buying it for dollars -- thus defeating the entire point of the exercise.
The case of Leo Wanta doesn't seem to support your claims.
You can trade American debt for Rubles from a Russian trading partner like the EU. Also, I would google more general information about Leo Wanta. Your reference doesn't actually talk about what he did.