You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Mark_Friedenbach comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (164)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: [deleted] 29 August 2014 08:19:28PM *  3 points [-]

An interval defines a range, with the endpoints of that range being represented often as error bars when presented graphically. When I said "error bars" I was informally referring shminux's measurement of his uncertainty in his prediction, regardless of whether he is using credible intervals, confidence intervals, or some other framework.