ChristianKl comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Part of the EU constitution is about mutual self defense. The EU almost certainly would defend their own territory. Staying out of the conflict wouldn't be only a betrayal of Estonia but a betrayal of every EU country.
If Ukraine would be in NATO game then attacking the "rebels" in Ukraine would be fair game just as the US attacks ISIS via airstrikes in Iraq.