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IlyaShpitser comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Well, that's a load off my mind! For a second there I thought he was rebuilding an empire using completely transparent Soviet-era pretexts in small enough steps that the West is unable to overcome its paralysis.
Look, it's very simple. Putin is a predator, and Europe would rather have warm homes in winter than stand on principle. That is their right of course, but let us call a spade a spade.
If Putin's Russia is not a dictatorship, there are no dictatorships on Earth.
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Does he want to annex another Chechnya or two?
What principle? Why should Europeans give up their warm homes and cheap electricity to defend the territorial integrity of countries which aren't even part of the EU or the NATO?
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The principle that we should not be moral cowards, and defend shelling points even if they do not involve us directly yet, encapsulated in the famous "First they came for..." poem.
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