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gwern comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

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Comment author: gwern 30 August 2014 07:30:55PM 2 points [-]

The right to self-determination seems to me to have been "recognized" as propaganda, but practically never practiced.

If it has not been practiced, then it cannot be harmful as Ilya claims. So which is it: do international abstractions have no force and no consequences, in which case it doesn't matter at all, Kantian or otherwise, which abstractions are mouthed? Or do they matter at least a little bit? In which case you don't seem to have demonstrated any harm from the abstraction - fighting bloody civil wars is not a new phenomenon.

Comment author: DanArmak 30 August 2014 07:55:25PM *  3 points [-]

It hasn't been practiced. If it starts being practiced, however, it may be as harmful as Ilya claims, so his argument deserves a response. But saying:

I'm saying we live in a world where a right to self-determination has been recognized for something like a century now, even if it does not come with an automatic invasion authorization from the UN Security Council. So far, I'm not sure if it's been all that bad

Is not evidence because it hasn't been really practiced so far.

Also:

do international abstractions have no force and no consequences

I'm not claiming anything about other abstractions, some of which definitely have force, just this one.

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