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V_V comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

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Comment author: V_V 30 August 2014 08:31:20PM 1 point [-]

Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century. As for the Russian nation, it became a genuine drama. Tens of millions of our co-citizens and co-patriots found themselves outside Russian territory.

Without condoning, I think I understand his point: Soviet Union was a multi-ethinic country dominated by a Russian ethnic majority (partially due to deliberate ethnic cleansing and genocide).
When Soviet Union collapsed, it was precipitously broken up along administrative or historical internal borders, without giving much thought to the ethnic compositions of the countries that were formed. Russians who found themselves cut off from Russia went overnight from being the dominant ethnicity to being an ethnical minority. I guess they didn't like it.

Putin has a platform based on Russian nationalism, hence catering to the plight of the "co-citizens and co-patriots found themselves outside Russian territory" is natural to him. It panders to his electorate and, should he indeed succeed to annex them, he could probably count them as his supporters.

All of this seems consistent with Putin wanting to annex Russophones, as I said in my comment upthread. He certainly isn't ranting about a divine mission to destroy "the Jew" and reclaim the Lebensraum for a Thousand-Year Empire.

Comment author: Azathoth123 31 August 2014 03:13:01AM 6 points [-]

When Soviet Union collapsed, it was precipitously broken up along administrative or historical internal borders, without giving much thought to the ethnic compositions of the countries that were formed. Russians who found themselves cut off from Russia went overnight from being the dominant ethnicity to being an ethnical minority. I guess they didn't like it.

Replace "Soviet Union" with "Austro-Hungarian Empire" and "Russians" with "Germans" and you have a decent description of the ethnic situation before WWII.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 30 August 2014 10:17:27PM 1 point [-]

<p>

Ok, but his platform then logically includes taking the former Baltic republics, probably big chunks out of central asian republics, and depending on the reading parts of Brooklyn also.

There are lots of Han Chinese in all sorts of places.

There are lots of mexicans in California.

I guess they didn't like it.

You treat the local opinion as monolithic, your analysis is superficial.

</p>

Comment author: V_V 31 August 2014 08:55:32AM *  -1 points [-]

Ok, but his platform then logically includes taking the former Baltic republics, probably big chunks out of central asian republics, and depending on the reading parts of Brooklyn also.

So what? He certaily can't take parts of Brooklyn, most likely he can't take even parts of the Baltic republics, which are members of the NATO, EU, Schengen Area, Eurozone, etc. Taking them would cause much greater disruption to Western European and American interests than taking Crimea or Donetsk.

He may indeed take parts of the central asian republics, if China lets him.

There are lots of Han Chinese in all sorts of places.

Which makes this an issue between Russia and China, not Western Europe.

There are lots of mexicans in California.

I'm not exactly expecting columns of Mexican tanks rolling into California any time soon, do you?

You treat the local opinion as monolithic, your analysis is superficial.

It's a first-order approximation. Do the Scottish people want independence from the UK? Well some do and some don't, no true Scotsman in its literal form. And yet, they will soon have a referendum and if the majority votes for indepdendence, Scotland will be an independent country.