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lmm comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

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Comment author: lmm 31 August 2014 08:08:43PM 3 points [-]

Human precommitment is pretty weak, and national precommitment more so (cf Budapest Memorandum elsewhere in the thread).