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cameroncowan comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

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Comment author: cameroncowan 01 September 2014 06:35:30AM 0 points [-]

Basically, the Fed as apart of the global central banking system keeps various currencies on hand for global trade purposes. Ergo you could dump those back in the market.

Comment author: Lumifer 02 September 2014 06:41:47PM 0 points [-]

Basically, the Fed as apart of the global central banking system keeps various currencies on hand for global trade purposes.

Does it, now? Actually keeps "currencies on hand"? Or maybe we're talking about FX swap lines?

Can you provide a like to e.g. a Fed balance sheet that shows "a few billion rubles"?

Comment author: cameroncowan 02 September 2014 08:53:54PM *  0 points [-]

I cannot say/find information on what exactly they keep on hand these days. However, the currency swap lines can be created literally at will which they did during the 2008 crisis. Also, if you look at the case of Leo Wanta, who armed with 2.7 Trillion dollars destabilized the Soviet economy with FX swaps in Brussels between 1989 and 1991.

Comment author: Lumifer 02 September 2014 09:28:30PM *  0 points [-]

the currency swap lines can be created literally at will

Yes, but when you have an FX swap line, you don't own the foreign currency, you only have a facility to get some in exchange for yours. In your example, for the Fed to attempt to devalue the ruble it would have to get it first from someone (likely, the Central Bank of Russia), effectively buying it for dollars -- thus defeating the entire point of the exercise.

if you look at the case of Leo Wanta

The case of Leo Wanta doesn't seem to support your claims.

Comment author: cameroncowan 03 September 2014 12:38:12PM -1 points [-]

You can trade American debt for Rubles from a Russian trading partner like the EU. Also, I would google more general information about Leo Wanta. Your reference doesn't actually talk about what he did.