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shminux comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Indeed. But it is still way better than what a similar topic would have generated on reddit or elsewhere.
Right, it used to happen every 12 years like a clockwork after the Soviets "liberated" Eastern Europe in 1944: 1956 Hungary, 1968 Czechoslovakia, 1980 Poland and Afghanistan. And by 1992 there was no more Soviet Union. In retrospect, I should have expected that another invasion is not out of the question.