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Lumifer comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later. - Less Wrong Discussion

19 Post author: shminux 28 August 2014 11:37PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 02 September 2014 09:28:30PM *  0 points [-]

the currency swap lines can be created literally at will

Yes, but when you have an FX swap line, you don't own the foreign currency, you only have a facility to get some in exchange for yours. In your example, for the Fed to attempt to devalue the ruble it would have to get it first from someone (likely, the Central Bank of Russia), effectively buying it for dollars -- thus defeating the entire point of the exercise.

if you look at the case of Leo Wanta

The case of Leo Wanta doesn't seem to support your claims.

Comment author: cameroncowan 03 September 2014 12:38:12PM -1 points [-]

You can trade American debt for Rubles from a Russian trading partner like the EU. Also, I would google more general information about Leo Wanta. Your reference doesn't actually talk about what he did.