owencb comments on The Great Filter is early, or AI is hard - Less Wrong Discussion
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There's a valid argument here, but the conclusion sounds too strong. I think the level of proof which is required for "easily colonise the universe" in this context is much higher than in the context of your other post (which is about best guess scenarios), because if there is a Great Filter then something surprising happens somewhere. So we should consider whether even quite unlikely-sounding events like "we've misunderstood astrophysics" might be possible.