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Lunin comments on The Great Filter is early, or AI is hard - Less Wrong Discussion
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There is a third alternative. Observed universe is limited, the probability of life arising from non-living matter is low, suitable planets are rare, evolution doesn't directly optimize for intelligence. Civilizations advanced enough to build strong AI are probably just too rare to appear in our light cone.
We could have already passed the 'Gread Filter' by actually existing in the first place.
Yes, that's exactly what an early great filter means.