Starting from zero programming knowledge, I think you can probably get a programming job in a hot subfield in a year if you're reasonably smart and dedicated, if you grok abstraction (probable if you did well in high school calculus, or if you read Less Wrong), and if you can successfully work around the guild rituals involved. You won't be an expert in anything, but you'll be able to do decent work and make decent money.

Being at the leading edge isn't hard; all that takes is buzzword compliance. Pushing it forward is hard, and unless you're exceptionally talented and hard-working I think that'd take significantly more than a year.