Of all the smart and dedicated programmers I know, I'm confident not one would claim to have been any good in under five years of practice.

If you pick a tiny area of expertise, say coding modifications of existing apps using one particular API using two or three particular libraries, you could probably be producing publishable results in a year. But you won't be as efficient, and won't have the same job security (because the market changes so quickly) as the guys who put in the years to learn to think like a programmer.