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pragmatist comments on Open thread, Sept. 1-7, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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The first hypothesis doesn't subsume the second. The second hypothesis is that the increased confidence comes from increased psychological well-being due to no longer inhabiting a body you don't identify with. If that was the sole (or primary) reason for increased confidence among post-transition trans men, then we should expect the effect to be symmetric, and for post-transition trans women to exhibit increased confidence too. The fact that they don't suggests that we should look for a different explanation, one that distinguishes between trans men and women. The testosterone hypothesis is one plausible possibility. Institutional sexism is another.
If there are differential perceived benefits in social prestige/power from transitioning based on direction, this is consistent with there being only one factor (sexism) conditional on direction but also consistent with there being unconditional benefits plus the pushmi-pullu effect of swapping testosterone & other androgens for estrogen etc in which the net effect for the mtf is indeterminate. I am willing to take their word on transitioning being good for them, which accounts for the first factor, I prefer experimentally demonstrated effects from powerful mind-altering hormones to unprovable spooks like institutional sexism, and so the hormone model seems to me to fit much better.