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Algernoq comments on In order to greatly reduce X-risk, design self-replicating spacecraft without AGI - Less Wrong Discussion

1 Post author: chaosmage 20 September 2014 08:25PM

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Comment author: Algernoq 22 September 2014 02:34:37AM 2 points [-]

The key obstacle here is startup money. If self-replication is economically sound, then a convincing business case could be made, leading to startup funding and a trillion-dollar business.

Again, the problem is a realistic economic assessment of development cost and predicted profit. In the current funding market, there is a lot of capital chasing very few good ideas. If there is money to be made here (a big if, given low cost of manual labor) then this could be a good opportunity.

"Mining the moon" is probably too expensive to start up. Better to start with a self-replicating robot factory on Earth.

I might look at this financial analysis as a side project. Contact me if you want to get involved and have sufficient industry experience to know what you don't know.

Comment author: Eniac 07 December 2014 04:54:24AM 0 points [-]

One of the prototypical payoffs that could be had with self-replication that I have seen mentioned is solar farms in the desert that live off sand or rocks and produce arbitrarily large acreage of photovoltaics that can then be used as a replacement for oil. This requires full self-replication, including chemical raw material processing, which is not easy to demonstrate.

I am not sure a good business case could be made for the more limited form of self-replication where the "raw material" is machine parts that only need to be assembled. That would be much easier to demonstrate, so I think a business case for it would be extremely valuable.