ColbyDavis comments on A Guide to Rational Investing - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (43)
That sounds like usual risk aversion. How is that a bias?
A financial adviser advising an individual investor that only buys few assets might have this problem, but a fund could diversificate on thousands of different assets, therefore reducing this "reputational" risk. Which brings us to the following point:
Why in recent years? Why aren't these funds more common? And since you are talking about "rebalancing" in the next paragraph, are these funds really automatic, like index funds, or do they still require active portfolio managment?
I think there is a kind of "meta" risk you are not considering here: index funds are proven investment strategies, based on empirical evidence and economic theory. The investment strategies you propose here are more uncertain.
You link many studies in favor, but I don't have the expertise to evaluate their relevance, and I suppose this holds true for pretty much anybody who isn't a professional investor.
From the "outside view", the strategies you propose are inherently more risky than index fund investment.
Correlation doesn't imply causation. It is plausible that correlation actually goes in the way opposite than what you are proposing: in wealthier nations people have more disposable money to play zero-sum games with.
Which is why I said predictors, not correlates. There is plenty of research to support my claim; the source I cite points to some of it. Obviously teasing out the arrow of causality is difficult in large scale, trans-generational, international macroeconomic settings, but economists have done their best and the evidence supports the Solow growth model that Metus has brought up.