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jsteinhardt comments on What are your contrarian views? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Sitting down and thinking really hard is a bad way of deciding what to do. A much better way is to find several trusted advisors with relevant experience and ask their advice.
corollary: sitting down and thinking hard can be a good way to come up with strategies for finding good sources of advice.
been contemplating this recently. not sure if I agree or disagree. but going to come to my conclusions soon. Just need to find some time to sit down and thing about it...